Video compression tech. Some guy on the internet I for one am lucky enough to participate in the birthing of an alternative financial paradigm so that people have choices. Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! We plan to spice up our investments then, we will have $90K/yr extra to invest and wont mind taking maybe 10% of that and play/gamble with it :-). But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. If they talk about investing in BTC or any crypto CURRENCY, I say, well, I think Ill invest in Mexican Pesos. I have accepted lifes nudge and opened up several pages of your blog and am working through them right after this, The Vigilante United States . January 2, 2018, 5:44 pm. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. You basically have to first deposit a lot of money (as a reserve) onto bitcoin exchange sites, which themselves are only loosely regulated and would probably become insolvent if bitcoin crashed. The shovel sellers are the real winners here. Do you seriously think that corruption is not a big deal in first-world countries? For me, its just like watching a show that I dont know the ending of yet. Look at all the nations that proposed a EUR based oil exchange, all overthrown (no, not saying those were shining examples of humanity but the prioritization is simply correlated enough). We will see you on the other side of the crash. I had no idea the market capitalization of Bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies are so high. It remains to be seen. Not likely, bitcoin mining farms are in China because of the cheaper energy costs. The account is now worth over $500k, but the high was closer to $700k. Watch on. For those of us who live in USA and use the USD for our currency, what does it mean to trust that government, which is currently breaching 19 TRILLION dollars in debt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States) while simultaneously reducing its revenue stream (tax breaks for everyone). Cryptocurrencies are the key to humanitys survival. Of course there is value in regulations, too. 100% agree. A stock is not a ticker symbol; it is a stake in an underlying business. rollie fingers I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. The cryptocurrency is the glue that holds the system together. (a Case Study), https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/, https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/, https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania, http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States. Thats what I have been saying guys. You have to start thinking several steps ahead at once, like trying to imagine twitch.com in 1990. I have these lovely tulip bulbs for sale, please PM me. Speculation is great. Bitcoin reminds me of a story my daughter told me. To me, the Bitcoin bet is basically a global Paypal that allows anyone in the world to use it. The timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right! February 13, 2018, 5:35 pm. . This has happened with EVERY speculative event throughout recent history. Remember there was social media before Facebook. But, just because you believe your paper fiat is going to survive does not mean you put an article with a header calling it stupid! This article is pretty below par in its research and very one sided. This is the greatest use of human energy and capital the world has ever seen. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. People fall in love with works of art. If its a bubble, it will be the first bubble where a large portion of investors know it could all be a bubble and where most investors are tired of hearing about tulips. My disagreements w the article summarized: But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. In my personal opinion, Bitcoin just seems like another form of a financial institution that is trying to say its not an institution when it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck so it must be a bank, no?! I mentioned very specific problems with BTC/ETH. As the money supply increases, purchasing power is concentrated with the money creators at the expense of others holding the currency. No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. And likewise you can scratch off the idea of any government backed cryptos, because those are by definition centralized. Yes, it is true that bonds are *also* in a bubble at the present timeand that the bond bubble is so big that it makes stocks look relatively cheap by comparison. . January 2, 2018, 6:47 pm. Heres a great description of the whole scene by Chain CEO Adam Ludwin. Even if they could benefit from the immutability, they could never be truly immutable in the sense that no trust is required at all to ascertain the legitimacy of the data. I argue that fiat currency is inefficient because its supply is always increasing. Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. > On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. I have been hearing Bitcoin is a scam and a bubble since the time it was 200 bucks! Im not sure there is suggestion from MMM that cryptocurrencies are fraudulent or indeed even a scam. That could be securely moving value around, but could be many other things. There are sure going to be a lot of people gnashing their teeth and rending their garments when the bottom falls out of this market. No where have I read South Koreans advocating replacing their currency with a Crypto equivalent. That is when we are talking equality and progress for all! Or maybe you dont understand how exchanges work. Even if they made a hundred trillion dollars next year, you wouldnt see any of it unless you sold your stock to someone willing to pay a higher price for it (or they started paying dividends). But some people actually DO value rare baseball cards and stuffed animals and gold and tulips at current prices, as goods in and of themselves. About the Comments Section:Normally, I try not to publish comments that are just emotional reactions or totally uninformed. No doubt we are in a crypto mania now, but the concept of a global digital currency has been coming since Biblical times. There are dozens more data points just like these. Bitcoins etc does not make it easier at all. January 5, 2018, 7:21 pm, *cough* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. January 3, 2018, 9:49 am. All that the US has done since 2008, is hit the ball further and further down the road while at the same time blowing it more and more with air (read Quantitative Easing). Its closest to an MLM for me. The Money Mustache Community . Good to add this article to the (hopefully) growing list of rational explanations debunking the appeal of what my 76 year-old Grandma, a consummate investor, rightfully calls funny money. It pains me to hear friends, some of whom I have to believe are intelligent people, describing their vast spoils and commitment to cryptos. Everything currently is too expensive. This way, whichever direction GBTC goes, you wont be in a regretful situation. But from now on, Im going to replace that sob story with this: Man, I missed out on MMM fingernail clippings! to remind myself of the absurdity of that imagined sunk cost Ive burdened myself with. Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. And nothing that can go on forever, does. Those who are in it are using it for speculative purposes, not as a currency. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Talk of being blissfully ignorant! Its speculation, pure and simple. But youre entitled to your opinion nonetheless. They are very valuable and the price is sure to rocket! I dare you to look it up! I dont feel like making a well-constructed arguments because Im tired and this may make me look like a fool but frankly, I dont care. MissSaraBee The truly irrational. Eenvoudig leven . There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. MMM writes things like currency should not be artificially sparse and should expand. , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Mr. Money Mustache's argument easily boils down to the soundbyte that "bitcoin's price is fundamentally unpredictable, which makes it a terrible investment decision.". And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. This video epitomizes the Bitcoin market right now. 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. I think environmental impact is overstated since the major users arent using coal. Bitcoin is actually a saviour that provides the world an opportunity to get out of total mess without fighting a WW3! Yes, it is insane to value something highly solely because other people might value it. This is Part 1 of 2. Bitcoin isnt that though. They cant use these gift cards. But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one thats been artificially propped up since the financial crisis. It grew to $240k. About half a trillion dollars worth of gnashing and rending. It is, above all else, pure wealth, other substances, and activities may be valued in gold bullion. Last May, when I announced I had inked a deal with Harriman House to publish my new book, Pathfinders, I invited those of you who had embraced The Simple Path to Wealth to share your stories. However, Bitcoin is one of the least performing major cryptocurrencies, so lets not talk about fucking Bitcoin all the time just because the price of one unit is in the thousands. Do pay attention, please. Regular money has nothing behind it either. It is the main currency by which you can obtain other cryptocurrencies. My friend who has a Masters in Computer Science inquired with me about investing in Bitcoin before Christmas and I told her essentially what I thought as mania. Here's my direct negative experience with Pete, Mr. Money Mustache that may give insight into the MMM divorce. how is this different than a crypto? Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. I agree that Bitcoin isnt an investment. It's natural to just look at the price itself and how much it's . January 3, 2018, 5:48 am. Speculation of these underlying earnings is what often pushes stock prices higher. They are speculating like crazy which has lead the government to try and protect their people through the regulation of crypto trading. Ask me Anything! Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. Educate yourself on why Bitcoin and Blockchain cannot be split up. Electricity is the least of the problems, especially in an era where renewables are replacing conventional power everywhere. But, these days you shouldnt use resistance heaters except for the lightest heating loads, because they are obsolete. Now lets get back to your kick-ass money savvy engineering experiments :-), Oh, dont feel too bad. If you're like most Americans, you're a few . The cost savings from implementing everything on immutable ledgers has significant cost savings and automation of processes which is why there is so much speculation. 8. If you feel comfortable developing your own metrics with which to gauge coins and want to invest in projects long term, you can. While I agree with your sentiment about Bitcoin I have been echoing similar warnings to friends and family since its mid-2017 breakout to $2k I think several other cryptos are definitely deserving of a portion, albeit small, of an investment portfolio. I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. While it is true that stocks are probably expensive right now, one thing that doesnt get mentioned enough with Shiller P/E is the E represents the 10-year rolling average inflation-adjusted earnings. Yes, this is a function. Since the Fed can always print as much currency as it wants, I would probably bet on scenario #2 as well, so perhaps were half in agreement. What are the world currencies pegged to ? @RK So If Jihan wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and decides to dump all his coins then it will open up hell hole for every one else. And you dont want it for this purpose anyway after all, do you currentlyhide your money in offshore tax havens and transact your business on black markets? They cant use these gift cards. Id argue strongly that its a good thing. January 3, 2018, 7:13 am. Funny, I was recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking up the virtues of Bitcoin. LOL. Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. It doesnt matter if it goes to $100 trillion per coin or per fingernail the underlying speculation is bullshit, which is why it needs to be stopped. Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. Besides, theres value in bitcoin, like with gold or a comic book, or any other item people assign a value to. You invested in GBTC? Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. Calling this a waste of human energy is NUTS. There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. The value of bitcoin is very far removed from any sensible fundamental valuation, and the thing driving up the price seems to be a common sense that it will be worth more in the future. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. Or the cars people use to haul that stuff then. How much do you have invested in BTC? nVidia shares, purchased right after they were found liable in some court case and thus were a bit depressed, were some fantastic shovel sellers for me these last few years :), Dan Someone Shit. Or grid power in general. Your question was answered. Its funny reading your article because while Im a true believer in bitcoin as the internet of money, I feel pretty much the same way as you do about 99% of the rest of crypto. Higher energy usage in China means that the nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer. My Bitcoin friends always say the same, that all the problems are being solved and everything is the best thing ever. WHY??? If the standard institutions werent a (govt-supported) bunch of crooks & were not in place to help only their cronies, this whole bitcoin situation would likely never have happened. Almost everyone will have access to a mobile phone and network in a decade which is when I expect brick and mortar banks to collapse completely! Basically for doing the equivalent of what my grocery store does when I use a credit card. It can be entertaining, though, to sit there and watch people who just happen to have $7k in small bills on them feed it into the machine at 2 am. They know him as Mr. Money Mustache -- a gentleman who retired at the ripe age of 30 without a million-dollar salary. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Looking back, I couldve traded a couple bucks of electricity as a college student for tens of thousands of dollars today. When evaluating investment bubbles, it means looking at where everyone is throwing their money no matter how many billions and being willing to say Bull. Ryan Thomas Maybe some other crypto-currency can overcome those issues and some have, but still a long way to go. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. Its clear from reading the comments that most people dont understand how this works. Yeah we could all gamble our way to FIRE, this week bitcoin, next week slot machines, poker, etc. I was excited to get in on the IFCO (Initial Fingernail Clipping Offering) but the price had already shot up while I was reading. . This is not correct. Youll note that without prejudice and emotion, he describes the actualuses of the technology, without getting intohow we should all place uninformed bets on its future value. It is subject to crazes and manias. This is bitcoin's intrinsic value and the longer it exists, the more apparent it will be. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. Anyway, in real terms, US stocks have been in a secular bear market since 1999. Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Even if youre the only one doing it. That was called new economy. . Yeah, IF YOU SHOUT LIKE THIS IT MAKES YOUR POINT COMPLETELY VALID. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. Mattheus January 16, 2018, 4:53 pm. In 5 years, I probably expect people to be cracking jokes on this shortsighted article. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Today, Jan 26, at 11:30 AM, its trading around $31,850. I have to disagree with one of your points here: in a worst-case scenario, if you have enough gold, you may be able to beat it between some rocks to make a serviceable frying pan. Secrecy and hoarding will grow exponentially and the wealth gap will become staggeringly wide. Een of andere blog . January 2, 2018, 5:52 pm. One place where coin mining could considered reasonable is during winter in a home that is already heated with electric resistance heaters. Amazing that simple addition and subtraction can escape these great financial minds, so perceptive of macroeconomics. I dont have time to play PC games 24 hours a day, so I might as well use my fancy computer to make some money while Im away from it. It is a commodity. Bitcoin is a universal currency and is not here to just replace your USD alone! According to the index, the amount of energy consumed by mining bitcoin surged about 26 percent in November alone and now totals nearly 36 terawatt hours, enough energy to power about 3.3 million homes. The fees are incredible. meep er 3 years and 1 week later. So If Jihan wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and decides to dump all his coins then it will open up hell hole for every one else. by jlcollinsnh 18 Comments. Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. Most of the 1000s of cryptos (and maybe even bitcoin) will fail, but the few that remain will change the world. Im sorry MMM, but the consensus is that your fingernails are worth nothing (you couldnt even pay me to hold them), and that 1 BTC is worth more than your bike. A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. That is bullshit written on toilet paper by a Private Bank called the Federal Reserve, owned by unscrupulous bunch of elites like your JP Morgan. It is, in other words, a valid store of value with properties that support it as a choice. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. Take a look at the German Mark after WW1. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? I reply, if its gotten that bad, I dont want to live in that world anyway. So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. I linked to Aswath Damodarans video on my Bitcoin post also. 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. Either way it wont end badly right? Devs in their mid 20s who owe the IRS 50k and lost most everything. Christopher R Young This is the best post on this entire comment thread. Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. Mining other coins can still be profitable with graphics cards, mainly ETH/ETC. Sure, China is a renewables leader but it has limits. My Take: Cryptocurrencies have A LOT of problems currently. Good points? Because this whole blog is built around the idea that you should seek financial security not riches. It is when stock prices stay the same in nominal terms but everything else rises in price around them, effectively masking the very real stock market crash through inflation. Invest in anything wisely and safely. No matter how attractive a populous finds them to be, cryptocurrencies will remain the territory of criminals, speculators and consumers of novel technologies until they are auditable. You need some sort of fundamentals, and in bitcoin there are none. At the moment, theyre incredibly volatile compared to the monetary systems of the developed world. Got it. Mr. Money Mustache I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. Go ahead and click on any titles that intrigue you, and I hope to see you around here more often. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. People like planting gardens. Undoubtedly the bubble will burst or mining difficulty will increase, but Ill be able to sell this supercomputer to some nerd play World of War Craft on. And its back to 12.5K in two days. at best. 1) Adoption curve and network effect, 2) people buying & holding (hodling), 3) people using it to buy stuff or services. Michael Even if Mining gets centralised, Bitcoins future cannot be dictated to by them! The reason internet destroys industries (?? Again, this is really only true for FIAT CURRENCIES. All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. January 2, 2018, 7:05 pm. Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. Gotta! as long as people in their consciousness believe it is a store of value it is. 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. The problem with Bitcoin, (really all of the crypto currencies) is their value is not tied to anything of value. Thats what happens when a real bonafide bubble bursts. Everything thats happening in the crypto space is just so normal as you would expect investors struggling to get the price right for something beyond the control of regulation. Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. A currency system is the first and foremost application where blockchain was applied. Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. Youve got Bitcoin with a market value of $234 Billion Dollars, then Ripple at $92 billion with Ethereum right behind at $85,792,800,592. Ive personally stayed away having learned these lessons in a past life. But really, I'm not a finance guy - someone who devotes most of his time to optimizing money. Some more attractive or reliable bulbs might even reasonably cost more. Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. Looks like I made a big mistake then. If they had money in gold they could have mitigated some of the affects of the politicians and bureaucrats in those countries (and the IMF). If you dont have fiat money to buy the bitcoin then someone is going to have to start getting paid in btc. There are other points that I cant think of right now. January 3, 2018, 4:34 pm. Yes, that is your ground reality today. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. You could just hold a fraction and still see it grow with time, much faster than most other investment avenues available today. You know things arent a good investment when there are Bitcoin ATMs at bars. gov issued currencies = Human trust and cooperation. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. 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